{"id":4203,"date":"2011-11-11T13:57:11","date_gmt":"2011-11-11T02:57:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/michaelwyres.com\/?p=4203"},"modified":"2011-11-11T13:57:11","modified_gmt":"2011-11-11T02:57:11","slug":"opposition-nbn-plan-to-cost-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michaelwyres.com.au\/mwdc\/2011\/11\/opposition-nbn-plan-to-cost-more\/","title":{"rendered":"Opposition “NBN” Plan To Cost More?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Opposition communications spokesperson Malcolm Turnbull<\/a> has long argued that the government’s National Broadband Network<\/a> (NBN) plan is far too expensive, with $26b to come from the public purse to build it.<\/p>\n

Information today that his alternative plan has been priced at approximately $17b fronts up some interesting questions. Although this number is $9b “less” than the government plan, a little reading between the lines is required. At this stage, the Coalition has not commented on this report.<\/p>\n

\n\n \n
Citi Prices Turnbull Broadband Plan at $17b<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/center>\n<\/p>\n

Firstly, presuming the Coalition wins the 2013 election, we would face a two year halt in activity:<\/p>\n

“Following the six-month cost-benefit analysis after the 2013 election, Citigroup estimates that it would take two years to the end of 2015 for the coalition to renegotiate the definitive agreement with Telstra, negotiate a new separation deal and renegotiate the HFC deals with both Telstra and Optus.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That is two years of lost economic benefit in areas which would have had the NBN completed in that time.<\/p>\n

Secondly, approximately $6b of the $17b figure is calculated for the FTTN<\/a> component of the Turnbull plan. At such time in the future that an upgrade to FTTH<\/a> is done, most of that $6b becomes waste, as almost all of the equipment in the huge FTTN<\/a> cabinets – (of which it is estimated there will need to be 80,000 examples thereof, and pictured below) – will be completely surplus to requirements. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Otherwise known as wasted investment.<\/p>\n

If we are upgrading to FTTH<\/a> everywhere – (which even Turnbull admits will one day be required) – down the track, what will that cost?<\/p>\n

Hard to tell, but let’s add $4b – (two thirds of the $6b it cost to do the now obselete FTTN<\/a> component of the Turnbull plan) – to the $17b price. We’ve forked out $17b, but wasted $4b, so the “real” cost of the original Turnbull plan when looking to upgrade it to FTTH<\/a> might have been $21b.<\/p>\n

That leaves us with “only” $5b of difference between the two plans. What would be the total cost to upgrade it to FTTH<\/a>?<\/p>\n

Given that an FTTH<\/a> rollout RIGHT NOW is currently priced at $26b – (the government plan) – does that take the long term cost to $47b? Could they get it done for $5b to even cost the same as the current government plan?<\/p>\n

I doubt it.<\/p>\n

Over time, the opposition plan will<\/i> cost more than the current intention of building a full FTTH<\/a> (better) network, before we even consider the lost benefits to the economy.<\/p>\n

Cheaper broadband Malcolm?<\/p>\n

Get real!<\/p>\n

(UPDATE: Further analysis of the Citi report from Delimiter<\/a>).
\n(UPDATE: The ACCC has also formed the view that Turnbull’s plans would likely be an expensive waste of money<\/a>).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Opposition communications spokesperson Malcolm Turnbull has long argued that the government’s National Broadband Network (NBN) plan is far too expensive, with $26b to come from the public purse to build it. Information today that his alternative plan has been priced at approximately $17b fronts up some interesting questions. Although this number is $9b “less” than […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[100,368],"class_list":["post-4203","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-technology","tag-auspol","tag-nbn"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michaelwyres.com.au\/mwdc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4203","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michaelwyres.com.au\/mwdc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michaelwyres.com.au\/mwdc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michaelwyres.com.au\/mwdc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michaelwyres.com.au\/mwdc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4203"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michaelwyres.com.au\/mwdc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4203\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michaelwyres.com.au\/mwdc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4203"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michaelwyres.com.au\/mwdc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4203"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michaelwyres.com.au\/mwdc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4203"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}