There has been great change in the dynamics of the internet filtering debate in recent weeks, particularly with the Coalition promise to block any such legislation in the Senate, in line with the stated policies of both the Greens, and independent senator Nick Xenophon.
Given the sheer weight of numbers a combined Coalition/Greens/Xenophon vote in the Senate would have over any Labor numbers, it seems that even if Conroy and the Labor party persist with passing the legislation through the lower house – (if they win the election on August 21) – that it is doomed never to pass into law.
Not to be outdone, Senator Conroy spoke on NSW country radio station 2CS earlier this week, stating that he would “seek changes at the censorship board level” to work around any blocking of the legislation in the Senate.
Sounds rather anti-democratic, doesn’t it? Well, such an action would be just that, but I actually doubt he would have any real ability to do so. More so, I believe his statement that he’ll circumvent parliamentary process to get his way, is nothing more than a double-pronged bluff.
With a number of recent major policy changes by the incumbent Labor government, such as the famous climate change policy backflip, and the change of heart over the so-called “Resource Super Profits Tax” on the mining industry, the Gillard Government is not ready for another major policy turnaround.
It would seem that fearful of another voter backlash from another embarrassing policy change, Conroy has been jumping up and down to sure up the appearance of government resolve towards the filtering policy. The election already appears to be a tightly run race, so every vote will count.
Changing their mind – (at least publicly) – before the election on yet another policy would promote an image of mistrust – particularly amongst swinging/undecided voters. Conroy and Labor know that the filter is doomed, but have to appear strong to the electorate to win votes.
So in the first instance, flipping again will lessen the number of swinging voters that swing in their direction come August 21st.
In the second instance, the fundamentalist Christian vote – undoubtedly the major lobbying force behind this policy in the first place, and constituting almost guaranteed votes for Labor almost on the basis of the filtering policy alone – would feel betrayed if the government backed down.
So Conroy and Labor are publicly standing up for the policy to win/save some votes now, knowing full well that even if they win the election and the legislation passes the lower house, that it’s doomed in the Senate.
The recent announcement that the filter would be delayed until a review of the classification system is completed provides the out for the government.
After the “review”, the government will have an excuse to change its position. They’ve saved some face BEFORE the election, and the policy will be – (they hope quietly) – taken outside and put out of its misery.
I feel Conroy and Labor are bluffing. They know its doomed, and what they’ve done is made sure that they can clean things up as quietly as possible later.